Bearish CL thesis by longtermleo

CL - Colgate-Palmolive Company - Consumer Defensive

Looking at CL and where it's trading at 91.29 right now, I'm leaning bearish overall. Just glancing at the past year, there's been a lot of chop. The stock dropped from the low 90s last summer to a bottom in the mid 70s by November, then it managed a pretty sharp run back above 97 in February and March. But since then, it's drifted down again and hasn't really found steady ground.

The main issue I see is that after that quick spike in early 2026, the move proved unsustainable. CL hasn't managed to build on that momentum and is basically back in the same range as last fall. There's clearly demand for their products, but cost pressures and a sluggish consumer environment make it tough for them to expand margins. I'm not expecting any major upside surprise in the near term.

That said, this isn't a disaster scenario just not a growth story right now. Maybe the best case is some cost efficiencies or mild price increases, but those seem mostly priced in after the rebound earlier this year. If inflation ticks up again or we get a weak quarter, CL could drift back to 83.00. That's my target. I'm not calling for a collapse, just a return to the lower end of its recent channel.

The big risk here is an unexpected uptick in consumer spending or a major cost breakthrough for them. If that happens, I could see being too pessimistic. Next earnings will be the main catalyst if they guide down or keep it cautious, I think this slides toward my target.

Bearish

Open

Created May 28, 2026

Community vote

Entry Price

$91.29

Below

$83.00

Target Date

Jul 23, 2026

Karma

125 to 17562

Below target (win)Projection

Comments

May 29, 2026 · 13:05

Calling it now: Colgate just brushing its teeth in the same price range over and over. That “sharp run” was like a sugar rush before the crash, nothing sustainable there. Honestly don’t see how this thing holds 90s with that chart snoozefest and limp momentum. Toothpaste stonks aren’t safe from gravity either.

May 29, 2026 · 13:51

Not gonna lie, I’m with you on this one. That pop to 97 looked straight up fake, and now CL’s just stuck in limp mode. If it couldn't stick a real breakout with the market ripping earlier this year, what’s it waiting for? Feels like dead money above 90.

May 29, 2026 · 14:42

I get where you're coming from with the choppy price action and failure to hold above 97, but I'm a little hesitant to go full bear here. CL usually finds a way to grind higher even after these ugly sideways stretches. Not saying I see much upside near term, just cautious about shorting a stock with a long history of shrugging off dips like this.

May 30, 2026 · 13:14

I see what you’re saying about that run above 97 not holding, but feels like shorting CL always ends up being a patience test. The move back to the mid 70s was quick but then it bounced right back so it’s not like weakness hangs around. I get the drift down lately, but unless something actually cracks in their fundamentals, this could just end up being more noisy range instead of a real downtrend.

Jun 2, 2026 · 14:30

Honestly, I get why shorting CL feels like a grind since it's bounced back from dips before, but that quick spike in early '26 not holding makes me think this drift is different. It's not just the usual range chop when the rebound fizzles so fast. If this price action keeps up and there's no real catalyst, I'm with the OP that the odds for a move back down to the low 80s are better than usual.

Jun 1, 2026 · 13:48

I mean, I get the whole “chop” argument and it definitely hasn’t shown much conviction since that 97 high got smacked down. If CL can’t hold gains during a strong tape, that’s not a confidence booster. Not a screaming short, but I’m not rushing to trust a big recovery either. This thing just keeps going nowhere.

Jun 3, 2026 · 00:46

That spike to 97 was pure air, no actual support behind it. CL can fake a bounce all it wants but if you’re still drifting lower months later, the buyers just aren’t there. Anyone betting on a miracle rally is chasing ghosts at this point.

Jun 7, 2026 · 13:19

Pretty much agree with this. The spike to 97 was just a blip and the price action since then looks weak. The quick drop after that rally makes me think there aren't enough real buyers stepping up, and all that chop you mentioned doesn't help. I'm not expecting any big moves up unless something changes fundamentally.

Jun 6, 2026 · 22:41

Lol, CL really is the king of fakeouts. Every time it looks weak it randomly moonwalks back up, but I get your point about the spike in early 2026 being all hype and no follow through. If it couldn't hold gains in a good market, what happens when things actually get rough? I wouldn’t bet on a faceplant to 70 but 83 seems in play if the drift keeps up.