HD - Home Depot Inc

NYSE · Consumer Cyclical · Home Improvement Retail

$349.40

Market Closed

End of day · Apr 17, 2026, 12:00 AM

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About

The Home Depot, Inc. operates as a home improvement retailer. It sells various building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden products, and décor products, as well as facilities maintenance, repair, and operations products. The company also offers installation services for flooring, water heaters, bath, garage doors, cabinets, cabinet makeovers, countertops, sheds, furnaces and central air systems, and windows. In addition, it provides tool and equipment rental services. The company primarily serves homeowners; and professional renovators/remodelers, general contractors, maintenance professionals, handymen, property managers, and building service contractors, as well as specialty tradesmen, such as electricians, plumbers, and painters. It also sells its products through websites, including homedepot.com; homedepot.ca and homedepot.com.mx; blinds.com, an online site for custom window coverings; and thecompanystore.com, an online site for textiles and décor products, as well as through The Home Depot stores. The Home Depot, Inc. was founded in 1977 and is based in Atlanta, Georgia.

https://www.homedepot.com

HD - Home Depot Inc

Consumer Cyclical

I've been tracking HD ever since it started rolling over from its late summer highs above 415, and seeing it retrace all the way down to the current 320.75 is pretty remarkable. The market's clearly shifted to risk-off mode for anything exposed to consumer discretionary, and Home Depot's taken it on the chin as housing activity cooled and rates stayed elevated. But when you zoom out, you're looking at a business with a fortress balance sheet, industry dominance, and a track record of compounding value for decades. The main thing that stands out is how overdone this selloff seems relative to the underlying fundamentals. Even with softer DIY trends, HD has managed to hold gross margins steady thanks to its scale and supply chain efficiency. Pro customer spend is still resilient and makes up a larger share each year, which really helps buffer the hit from the casual consumer. The company’s ability to flex pricing and control costs has kept earnings quality high, and management’s still aggressively buying back shares at these depressed levels. That’s a signal they see real value here too. Of course, the big risk is that the macro headwinds linger longer than expected. If mortgage rates stay stuck above 7% and the consumer gets squeezed further, we could see another leg down in housing-related names. But I think at these prices, that risk is more than baked in. You're basically paying a market multiple for a business that's historically run circles around the S&P in return on capital. Plus, the dividend is as reliable as they come, which makes waiting for the cycle to turn a lot less painful. Looking ahead, the setup for a rebound is building as soon as we see any hints of rate cuts or housing stabilization. Next earnings is the key catalyst in my view if management guides even a little optimistic on Pro trends or cost leverage, it should re-rate fast. I'm targeting 377.10 over the next 11 weeks, as I think the market will realize the pessimism here is overdone once sentiment shifts back toward housing and consumer staples.

Entry

$320.75

Above

$377.10

Jun 8, 2026

Karma

121 to 17160

Bullish

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