Bullish ROKU thesis by longtermleo

ROKU - Roku Inc - Class A - Communication Services

I've been tracking ROKU for almost a year now and the volatility here is both a risk and an opportunity for anyone with a long-term view. The stock cratered in the spring of 2025, dropping to the mid-50s, but has since clawed its way back toward the low 90s. It's clear the market is still digesting the aftermath of that sharp sell-off, but I think the base that's formed since last summer is pretty constructive for patient investors.

What keeps me bullish here is Roku's entrenched position in the US smart TV market and the durability of their ad-supported platform model. Even as competition has intensified with big names like Amazon and Google, Roku still controls a huge share of viewing hours and continues to expand its OS reach through partnerships with TV manufacturers. That's not just a vanity metric it translates into leverage when negotiating ad inventory and recurring revenue from platform services. The company has shown an ability to innovate with its software and user experience, and brands want to be where eyeballs are shifting.

I get the skepticism around profitability, especially after the whipsaw in margins we've seen post-pandemic. It's fair to say that rising content costs and macro headwinds could weigh on results in the near term. But if they can maintain positive free cash flow and keep user growth steady, the market will eventually reward that stability. The risk, of course, is that another round of ad spending cuts or an unexpected loss of OS market share derails the recovery, but at current prices I think that's more than baked in.

Earnings next quarter will be a big catalyst. If Roku can deliver on user growth and show some improvement in ARPU, I see this stock moving back toward 111.60 over the coming months. I'm willing to wait for that, given the underlying trends and Roku's key role in the connected TV ecosystem.

Bullish

Created Mar 23, 2026

Community vote

Entry Price

$93.27

Above

$111.60

Target Date

Jul 6, 2026

Karma

115 to 16558

Above target (win)Projection

Comments

Mar 24, 2026 · 00:49

Yeah, I’m with you, ROKU’s got that coiled spring energy. Everyone freaked out when it tanked in the spring, but honestly, that overreaction set up a killer base around the 90s. Streaming isn’t going anywhere, and as long as they keep their platform sticky, I don’t see this rolling over again without a fight. I’m aiming for that $110+ pop too, just gotta hang on through the noise.

Mar 24, 2026 · 14:08

I get the argument for a base forming, but honestly, I’m still nervous about how much of Roku’s “entrenched position” is just the market not having a better idea yet. If competition or margins get any worse, the floor could drop out again. I’m not saying it’s a total no-go, just that the volatility cuts both ways, especially with another weak earnings print. Holding some, but not backing up the truck yet.

Mar 24, 2026 · 22:28

Totally fair, the “entrenched position” angle only goes so far if they keep burning cash or someone like Amazon just eats their lunch on ad tech. The post-selloff recovery does look decent, but ROKU’s always at the mercy of some new streaming headwind. I think mid-50s scared off a lot of weak hands, but I’m still only half convinced the base is bulletproof. Worth a shot for patient types, just gotta keep a close eye on those margins.

Mar 29, 2026 · 14:09

Honestly, anyone who survived holding through that faceplant to $50 deserves a medal. The volatility is literally its main character trait at this point but if you think that base is legit, you kinda just have to close your eyes and buy the dips. Entrenched or not, Roku has more plot twists than half the streaming shows on its platform. I'll grab popcorn and see if it actually rips to 110.

Mar 29, 2026 · 14:57

Lol, “entrenched position” just means Roku isn’t dead yet. The bounce off $50 was wild but I still think it’s basically a glorified TV remote company living on borrowed time if the streaming wars get spicy again. I’ll hold my bag and pray but I don’t trust this base unless they show some actual cash flow.

Mar 30, 2026 · 14:15

That recovery off the mid 50s was a rollercoaster for sure, but I get what you mean about the base. ROKU’s volatility is brutal, but if you believe they’ve still got a moat in streaming OS and ad tech, these levels aren’t nuts for a long term hold. Not pretending it’s risk free, though one stumble with margins and this could unwind fast. Still, patience pays if the base holds.