I've been tracking ROKU for almost a year now and the volatility here is both a risk and an opportunity for anyone with a long-term view. The stock cratered in the spring of 2025, dropping to the mid-50s, but has since clawed its way back toward the low 90s. It's clear the market is still digesting the aftermath of that sharp sell-off, but I think the base that's formed since last summer is pretty constructive for patient investors.
What keeps me bullish here is Roku's entrenched position in the US smart TV market and the durability of their ad-supported platform model. Even as competition has intensified with big names like Amazon and Google, Roku still controls a huge share of viewing hours and continues to expand its OS reach through partnerships with TV manufacturers. That's not just a vanity metric it translates into leverage when negotiating ad inventory and recurring revenue from platform services. The company has shown an ability to innovate with its software and user experience, and brands want to be where eyeballs are shifting.
I get the skepticism around profitability, especially after the whipsaw in margins we've seen post-pandemic. It's fair to say that rising content costs and macro headwinds could weigh on results in the near term. But if they can maintain positive free cash flow and keep user growth steady, the market will eventually reward that stability. The risk, of course, is that another round of ad spending cuts or an unexpected loss of OS market share derails the recovery, but at current prices I think that's more than baked in.
Earnings next quarter will be a big catalyst. If Roku can deliver on user growth and show some improvement in ARPU, I see this stock moving back toward 111.60 over the coming months. I'm willing to wait for that, given the underlying trends and Roku's key role in the connected TV ecosystem.