Bullish AMAT thesis by danielcharts

AMAT - Applied Materials Inc - Technology

Hard not to notice the monster run Applied Materials (AMAT) has been on over the last year. Anyone who got in even six months ago is looking pretty smart right now. From the chart, we’re talking about a climb from around 175 to over 400. Wild. But if you’re jumping in at 404.86, it’s worth asking how much juice is left in this rally.

Still leaning bullish here, target is 481.00. The main thing for me: demand in semicap equipment just keeps surprising to the upside, and AMAT is at the center of it. We’re still seeing new fabs getting built out, and those capital budgets haven’t really slowed, even with macro noise. Also, AMAT’s service revenue has been quietly ramping, which helps smooth out the volatile biz cycles and makes the valuation not look as stretched as it could be after that run.

The risk: buying after this kind of move always brings some heartburn. If capex spending does roll over, or we get a sharp inventory correction, this could easily retrace 15 percent or more. And with everyone chasing the same handful of names, sentiment could turn fast, especially if one earnings print disappoints. FOMO ramps quick but so does panic selling.

The big thing I’m watching is their next earnings call. Any upside to guidance or new long term contracts could be the push for another leg up. But I wouldn’t size this too big or expect a straight line higher after that ridiculous 12 month chart.

Bullish

Open

Created Apr 28, 2026

Community vote

Entry Price

$404.86

Above

$481.00

Target Date

Jul 28, 2026

Karma

118 to 16859

Above target (win)Projection

Comments

Apr 29, 2026 · 14:50

Honestly I struggle to pull the trigger here after a 2x in such a short time. Sure, semi equipment demand has been nuts, but these parabolic runs almost always get a reality check. Maybe there’s more upside if all the AI hype keeps the cycle hot, but at this price I’m a lot more nervous than bullish. If it dips back to earth, then maybe.

Apr 29, 2026 · 22:53

Honestly feels like buying AMAT now is showing up to the party after midnight and hoping the beer hasn’t run out. I get semicap demand is goated lately but these moves never go just up. You could get your 481 but don’t act surprised if it gives you a rollercoaster ride first.

Apr 30, 2026 · 13:02

Not gonna lie, I’m having the same debate with myself. The demand side is definitely wild and AMAT’s numbers make the FOMO real, but after this huge rip, I’m not sure how much upside is left without a breather. If you’re playing for 481 over two years, maybe there’s still some gas in the tank, but chasing after a run like this always makes me nervous. The path probably won’t be as smooth as the last six months.

May 6, 2026 · 23:17

Lol, climbing in at 400 after this monster rally takes some stones. I get that semicap demand is hot right now but you’re basically betting the music keeps playing with zero chairs yanked away. AMAT’s at the center of it, sure, but the air is thin way up here. If you’re right about the upside surprises, you’ll look like a genius. If not, just hope the floor isn’t far.