Not sure if anyone else is watching SCHW, but after that little roller coaster the past year I’m leaning bullish right now. Basically, we saw SCHW slide from the mid 90s down to the high 70s last spring, but then it’s steadily clawed back most of that ground. There was a nice run up to 101 in January, a quick spike to 103, and then this weird dip back to the low 90s by April. Now we’re hanging out just over 100 again. Seems like the market is still trying to figure out where to price in some of the noise from last year.

Anyway, I’m thinking the real catalyst this time is going to be when SCHW reports next quarter. With interest rates still at these levels, their net interest margin should hold up fine and they’re not nearly as exposed to deposit flight as everyone panicked about before. On top of that, they’ve kept asset growth positive, which is not nothing given the market whiplash. The digital brokerage side is hanging in there with new clients too. I’m setting my target at 115.00, so that’s about a 15 buck move from today.

One thing I’m a little nervous about: if we see another spike in money market yields or if the Fed does something dumb, SCHW could catch another drawdown. It’s not immune to macro shocks, even if they’ve managed the transition pretty well so far. But unless there’s another surprise out of left field, I don’t see a return to the ugly 70s levels.

If they can deliver a beat and, more importantly, guide strongly for the back half of the year, I could see a rotation back into the stock. Might not be the hottest ticket, but risk reward feels pretty good from here.