FTNT has been on a pretty wild ride over the past year. If you look at the price action, it was hanging above 100 for a while before the sudden collapse last August (dropped all the way into the 70s), then just sort of meandered and bounced between 76 and 86 for months. Now it’s shot right back up to 115, so whoever held through that is probably feeling smug.

I’m bullish here with a target of 135.25. The recent runup looks aggressive, but I think it’s finally getting credit for its shift toward recurring subscription revenue. That model’s sticky, and a bunch of big security contracts have landed since December. It’s not just hype; their last couple quarters actually showed solid billings growth. The market’s just waking up to the rerate potential.

Biggest risk? The competition. Palo Alto and CrowdStrike aren’t sitting still, and FTNT’s sales execution was pretty rough last summer (hence that crater). If new bookings slip again, this stock will get smacked right back down. So this isn’t one to go overweight on for me. But if next earnings show another beat, especially on margins, that could give it the juice for another leg up.

Keep your eye on the next quarter’s billings guide. If management sounds confident and gives a number north of expectations, I think the rerating continues. If not, well, be ready for a quick exit.