Alright, let's talk UNH. Huge swing over the last year, right? The chart's practically a rollercoaster from 420 last April to a brutal drop under 300 by mid summer, then bouncing hard back above 350 by September, and then sliding around in the 330s, even dipping into the 270s before clawing its way back to the current 366.77. This thing has been whipsawing bagholders left and right, but that's exactly where the opportunity is now.
I’m bullish here. These guys are the definition of scale in healthcare, and the market’s already overpunished them for perceived reimbursement and cost headwinds. But the thing about a behemoth like UNH: they just muscle through, cut fat, and eat competitors’ lunch when the headlines get ugly. Margins are squeezed, but the market is acting like they’re about to collapse. Watch for a massive sentiment reset if management drops even a hint of stabilization next quarter.
I’m targeting 420.00 (yeah, for real not just a meme number), so looking at a roughly 14.5% move from here. That’s not moonshot territory, but it’s big for a giant like UNH. Supporting reasons: 1) They still have insane contract pricing power with providers. 2) Medicare Advantage growth is slowing, but it’s nowhere near negative, and I think the Street is being weirdly myopic. 3) Share buybacks management always buys back heavy when the stock’s in the pit, and we’re likely due for another announcement soon.
Biggest risk? Political noise. If a new round of regulatory panic hits, this could get slammed again. That stuff is always unpredictable and the tape reacts instantly. But I’ll take my shot because the setup is too good and the Street loves a good "it wasn’t that bad" quarter. Next earnings is the catalyst. Give me a guide in line, cost discipline, and a bit of buyback talk, and this thing rips. Position sized for max pain.