DD has had a pretty rough year if you look at the chart. That massive drop in November (from the high 70s and low 80s straight down to the high 30s) basically wiped out a ton of value overnight. Since then it’s been crawling back, but every time it looks like there’s some momentum, it fizzles around the mid to high 40s. At $48.36 right now, that’s actually a little above where it’s been stuck for months still a long way off the highs.

I’m leaning bearish here. There’s too much structural uncertainty for me to feel comfortable. The company still hasn’t really explained the causes behind that huge autumn drop. It spooked a lot of holders and I’m not seeing much in the way of new confidence or institutional buying showing up. Plus, the bounces seem pretty weak, more like short covering than actual investor conviction. If they can’t put out solid guidance or show some turnaround in the next quarter, the price could easily drift back down to the low 40s.

I’m targeting $41.00 within the next 8 weeks. That lines up with where the stock briefly stabilized in December and January, and I think it’ll revisit that range if there’s another earnings miss or weak outlook. I know some are calling this oversold, but given the lack of a clear management plan and the memory of that big drop, I’m not expecting a sharp recovery.

One risk here is if there’s some kind of unexpected good news like a big asset sale or an activist stepping in. That could change the story fast. But barring that, I just don’t trust the current uptrend to stick, especially with macro headwinds still a factor. Next earnings will be the catalyst to watch, and if the numbers don’t impress, it could be a rough ride for anyone chasing this latest bounce.