VZ has quietly put together a pretty impressive recovery over the last few months. Not that long ago it was stuck in the low 40s (even bottomed out around 39 in January) after drifting down from last summer, but here we are back at 50.31 as of now. That’s a much steeper climb than I expected this early in the year. The move from under 41 at the end of January to over 51 in early March does make me pause a bit, since it feels like a lot of the "catch up" trade is already completed.

Still, I’m leaning cautiously bullish with a target of 55.85. The turnaround in free cash flow is the main reason. Debt was a big concern for me when rates shot up, but management has been chipping away at it and they haven’t had to cut the dividend. That matters a lot in this space and helps keep income focused holders around. Plus, wireless churn has stayed pretty reasonable, even with all the discounting wars between carriers. If VZ can hold share and keep margins from slipping further, it doesn’t take heroics for the stock to grind higher.

The one thing I’m watching closely: any sign of a price war spiraling again. T Mobile’s aggressive promos last fall spooked me, and if that comes back, the whole sector could stall out. So that’s my main risk here. I’d rather own VZ than chase a growth name at nosebleed multiples, but I’m not getting greedy.

Earnings in a few weeks should set the tone. If they raise guidance or deliver another clean quarter on debt and cash flow, that’s the kind of forward looking catalyst that could get the stock moving toward my target. I’m staying patient and keeping my stops tight just in case we get another sector hiccup.