Bullish RTX thesis by sara_capital

RTX - RTX Corp - Industrials

RTX has really been all over the place this past year. There’s been a lot of chop in the chart: a grind up from the 130s through last summer, then a more dramatic move above 200 by January, only to get whacked back under 150 in late April. Recently it’s bounced back up around 174, but I wouldn’t call this stable. The swings have been real.

I’m taking a cautiously bullish stance here and putting my target at 207.00. The reason: US defense spending looks like it’s not letting up, and RTX is as close to a pure play on that as you can get. Backlog numbers last quarter were crazy high, and the order flow is steady. I don’t see Washington dialing back the checks anytime soon, especially with global tensions still running hot. Plus, RTX has finally started to show they can manage the supply chain mess that hit margins last year. If they keep that up, upside gets unlocked.

I’m not blind to the risk. There’s always headline risk with defense stocks, and RTX gets hit extra hard any time there’s a peace talk headline or government budget squabble. Also, last earnings call sounded a little too optimistic on cost controls for my taste. If they stumble there, we could see another ugly drop.

What I’m watching for: any sign of a dividend hike or a big beat in the next earnings. That’d be a real catalyst. At these levels, the market seems somewhere between skeptical and just bored with RTX, but all it takes is one quarter of clean execution and the stock probably gets re rated higher. Not a hero play, but I like the odds for the next few months.

Bullish

Open

Created May 23, 2026

Community vote

Entry Price

$173.99

Above

$207.00

Target Date

Aug 15, 2026

Karma

119 to 16960

Above target (win)Projection

Comments

May 24, 2026 · 00:04

I mean, betting on nonstop US defense spending isn’t exactly a galaxy brain take but fine, I'll bite. The swings on RTX have been nuts but you’re acting like that’ll magically settle down. Sure, 207 isn’t insane if things calm down but this thing’s a yo yo and getting chopped is way more likely than a smooth rip. Careful with that cautious bull this ticker loves to fake people out.

May 27, 2026 · 13:05

Yo, nobody said RTX was gonna stop breakdancing on the charts. I’m just here for the (hopefully) inevitable fat Pentagon checks and maybe a government contract sugar rush. Will the chop calm down? Nah, probably not, but I’m not in for smooth rides. If it gets chopped back to 150 again I might just double dip.

May 28, 2026 · 22:22

I don’t think these wild swings are going anywhere fast either, I’m just hoping the floor’s been put in around here with all that bad news baked in. The chart’s a mess but the defense angle still matters, even if it’s a boring story. If they disappoint on earnings again though, 207 will look way out of reach. I’m not swinging for the fences with this one, just trying to ride the wave without flying off.

May 28, 2026 · 13:26

You’re not wrong about the recent rollercoaster in RTX. The defense spending angle has been the “safe” bet forever, but with how quickly this thing gets smacked around by headlines, I wouldn’t count on a smooth ride to 207. If earnings hiccup or there’s any political noise, it’ll dump again. I’d want to see it hold above 180 for a while before getting comfy.

May 28, 2026 · 22:57

Lol “cautiously bullish” with this chart? RTX couldn’t hold a trend if you handed it duct tape. Sure defense spending is a tailwind but this ticker gets bodied every time bad news drops, and I wouldn’t be shocked if it takes another dive before sniffing 200. If you’re in for the ride, just don’t act surprised when it faceplants again.

May 30, 2026 · 22:49

Honestly, I get the logic with US defense spending but this chart’s been like trying to nail Jello to a wall. I wouldn’t trust any kind of “floor” on RTX after that dump under 150. The sector support is real, but I’d keep stops tight because every time it looks calm something nukes it again. Not saying it can’t see 207 by next year but you’re definitely gonna need a stronger stomach than me.

May 31, 2026 · 00:59

“Cautiously bullish” is a mood until the next RTX news nuke drops and sends it on another bender. Sure, Pentagon money is like catnip but this ticker acts allergic to stability. If it ever holds above 200 again I’ll eat a Lockheed Martin hat. Good luck though, if the war machine keeps rolling maybe you’ll finally nail that floor.

Jun 1, 2026 · 13:07

Honestly, calling a bottom here feels risky with how easily RTX gets hit by headlines. I get the defense budget tailwind but I’m not convinced all the bad news is “baked in” yet. You might get that 207 if the Pentagon keeps shoveling cash but I wouldn’t bet the house on it with this kind of chop.