Bearish AIG thesis by longtermleo

AIG - American International Group Inc - Financial Services

Noticing AIG’s recent trend has me leaning bearish, or at least playing defense for now. Just in the past year, the stock has been on a rollercoaster peaking above 86 in December, then dropping all the way to almost 73 in January. Even though it rebounded a bit, the general direction seems choppy and pretty vulnerable to bigger market swings. Entry at 75.14 looks like a spot where there’s probably more downside risk than upside at this stage.

I’m wary of how insurance stocks like AIG can get slammed by large claims, and their Q1 earnings left a lot to be desired. Interest rates are still high, which helps their investment side, but at the same time, underwriting has been under pressure. Management seems focused on buybacks, but I’m not seeing a real catalyst to drive the stock materially higher in the near term.

My target here is 70.00, which honestly doesn’t sound all that dramatic, but if market volatility picks up or if we get a surprise in catastrophe losses, I think that level is pretty reasonable within the next few months. If AIG reports a strong improvement in underwriting profitability or gives clear forward guidance about stabilizing claims, I’d have to reconsider, but right now I’m comfortable taking a cautious stance.

The main risk is that AIG surprises with a big beat on earnings or a shift in capital allocation strategy, which would probably squeeze shorts and force me to cover. But as things stand, I just don’t see enough in the numbers to justify anything above current levels.

Bearish

Open

Created Apr 25, 2026

Community vote

Entry Price

$75.14

Below

$70.00

Target Date

Jul 18, 2026

Karma

119 to 16960

Below target (win)Projection

Comments

Apr 27, 2026 · 14:09

Can’t blame you for being cautious, AIG has looked real shaky after that drop from 86. Choppy charts like this usually mean trouble for anyone hoping for a quick turnaround, especially with how sensitive insurance stocks get when broader markets freak out. I’d rather miss a few bucks of upside than catch a falling knife here. Your 75.14 entry is probably safer playing for more downside.

Apr 27, 2026 · 23:33

AIG out here moving like it just got rear ended, and people still want to buy dips? Nah, I’m with you this thing’s a mess. Peaks, valleys, and nothing but headaches in between. I’ll let someone else try to time that bounce.

Apr 28, 2026 · 13:37

Pretty much same page here. That whiplash from 86 to 73 was brutal, and insurance stocks aren’t exactly known for clean rebounds after stuff like that. I don’t see the upside being worth the drama unless something big changes.

Apr 29, 2026 · 13:39

Honestly, if I wanted this much drama I’d watch reality TV, not park cash in AIG. Choppy is an understatement with how this thing’s been behaving, and insurance stonks love to disappoint when you least expect it. At 75 this feels more like a trap than a bargain. Not touching it till it stops acting possessed.

Apr 29, 2026 · 23:52

I get it, that 86 to 73 move wasn’t just a blip, and insurance stocks can get hit hard if the broader market turns ugly. I don’t see a stable floor anywhere close, so I’m fine sitting this out and letting others chase what little upside there might be. Entry at 75 feels like just rolling the dice.

May 4, 2026 · 00:42

Right, the way this thing bounced around last year doesn’t exactly scream “safe entry.” I’m not seeing any strong support either, and the vulnerability to bigger swings makes it more of a gamble than I want. Maybe if it really tanks there’s a play, but at 75 I think you’re spot on about the risk.

May 1, 2026 · 22:04

I can see the logic here. That kind of peak and drop in just a couple months says the floor is basically quicksand right now. Insurance stocks usually move like molasses but AIG’s got more swings than usual and just looks exposed. Honestly don’t see a reason to try catching this knife at 75 either, risk/reward’s just not there for now.