Looking at EOG's chart for the past year, we've seen a pretty wide range. The price was languishing down around 106 to 110 for a long stretch between October and January, but since February it's made a sharp move up, touching a high of about 140 before pulling back a bit to the current 135.78. That's a strong rally in a short period and makes me cautious about chasing it much further right now.

I'm leaning bearish here, with a short term target of 119.00. The main reason is that the recent run up seems largely driven by optimism around oil prices, but I don't see the fundamental picture supporting a sustained move above 135. EOG's production discipline is great, but the macro backdrop is still volatile and a lot of good news (like decent realized prices and stable costs) feels priced in after this rally. I also think there's a risk that OPEC headlines or a modest drop in crude could push energy names down.

One caveat: the next earnings call could easily shift sentiment if they surprise with a beat or guide higher on production. A positive update on their hedging program or cost controls might keep the bullish trend alive, so that's the main thing I'd watch before getting too aggressive with a bearish stance.

Bottom line, after this big move up, I think EOG drifts down to 119.00 over the next 6 weeks unless we get another leg up in oil. If I'm wrong, it'll probably be because of an unexpected catalyst out of the next quarter's results.