Been eyeing GPN lately and can't help but notice how choppy the past year has been. The swings have not inspired much confidence. Just in the last twelve months, we saw it head from the low 70s to the high 80s, then tumble back down below where it started. That says something about how fragile sentiment is here, especially after that steep drop into April.
I’m leaning bearish for the next few months. My target is 60.00. I’m not seeing convincing stabilization in the business, and the bounce attempts haven’t stuck. If anything, the last few months have been lower highs and lower lows overall. There’s also a lot of execution risk with management every time they look poised for a turnaround, they end up missing a quarter or two, which rattles people and pushes the stock down again.
Competition isn’t getting any easier either, and I’m worried that GPN is struggling to differentiate its core offerings. There’s always some news about new fintech players moving in on their turf, and that just keeps a lid on any real multiple expansion. If inflation pops up or consumer spending slows, the story could get worse.
The main thing I’ll be watching for is next quarter’s report. If they can finally show some clean growth and margin improvement, the story could change. But right now, I just don’t see a sustainable rebound coming together. If they disappoint again, I don’t think investors will give them much benefit of the doubt this time around.
