Surprised by DOW's (Dow Inc.) rally lately, honestly. This thing spent almost half a year in the low 20s and even dipped below that last August, looked like pure dead money at that point. Then starting early this year, it basically doubled. That's some serious momentum, though I'm definitely not the only one side eyeing how sharp that climb has been from January to May. The last print was 40.58, which is wild compared to where it sat just a few months ago.

I'm bullish here, but not crazy bullish. The speed of that recovery has to mean a little bit of FOMO and maybe a touch of overreaction from the market as people pile back into cyclical names. Still, DOW's margins have been improving and costs are way more under control now than they were during last year's pain. Plus, chemicals pricing looks like it's holding up better than expected, at least short term. Global demand hasn't totally fallen apart, which is what people were pricing in back in the fall.

My target is 48.50 in the next 10 weeks. That's right around a 20 percent move from here. I think we get there if DOW can beat expectations on free cash flow in the next earnings or give a clear sign that buybacks are coming back in a bigger way. They're sitting on decent cash now, so it's not out of the question.

That said, the risk is real: if the economy shows any new cracks or China's recovery stalls out, DOW can give a lot of these gains back fast. This is a cyclical stock and there's not much of a safety net if the macro backdrop sours again. But with sentiment shifting this quickly, I'll ride the wave for now and keep a close eye on those next earnings.