Okay this ESTC chart is an absolute car crash. Not even a slow bleed, more like someone drove it off a cliff from 92+ last summer to hanging under 50. That’s ugly. But you know what? I’m calling bottom. There’s too much doom in this tape and it’s time to pounce.
Elastic’s tech is still mission critical for a ton of enterprises and dev teams. Just because growth got punched in the mouth doesn’t mean the story is dead. This is classic market overkill: they whiffed a guide, yes, but the sticky recurring revenue and potential to cross sell new observability features are still very real. Fat margins aren’t going away. I see the risk/reward setup as lopsided at 47.51.
I’m not saying it magically bounces back to 80 overnight, but a snapback to 56.50 is in play as soon as the company posts one decent quarter with growth stabilizing. It’s all about the next earnings that’s the catalyst. If they even hint at re accelerating customer adds or show a respectable pipeline, shorts will scramble. You want to get in before the herd wakes up.
Look, the main risk is a second bad quarter. If they miss again or guide down, I can see another leg lower (maybe mid 30s, yikes). But I’m not betting on that. I think the sellers are exhausted and the risk/reward here is just too juicy to ignore for a punchy swing.
