So BBWI at 18.10 looks battered, and honestly that's what caught my eye. This thing was trading above 30 less than a year ago and it's been a pretty steady slide, with a few dead cat bounces that didn’t hold. The most recent leg down took it from over 24 in February to basically where we are now. Feels like all the optimism has leaked out of this stock and right now it’s just unloved retail.

I’m leaning bullish here, but not a hero call. The valuation has fully reset and management has been slashing costs aggressively. Even if same store sales are meh, BBWI’s margins should see some support. People sleeping on just how sticky their core customer is when the marketing gets dialed up. That’s one thing I think could surprise to the upside the next few quarters.

I’m targeting 21.70, which isn’t wild upside but it would be a decent bounce from these levels. I’d expect that to play out over the next 10 weeks if we get either an earnings beat or some positive commentary about traffic recovering. Watch for any hints on the next earnings call that promo activity is coming down. If that happens, shorts will start covering in my opinion.

Biggest risk I see is another guide down if consumer spending weakens further. We’ve already seen how fast this name can drop when sentiment goes south. Not a tuck it away and forget setup, but at this price you’re at least getting paid to take the shot if the bottom is mostly in.