Bullish MS thesis by sara_capital

MS - Morgan Stanley - Financial Services

Looking at Morgan Stanley right now, I see a name that's been riding the wave of a resurgent market, but the last couple months have been a reality check. After peaking north of 186 back in January, it's given up a decent chunk, now sitting around 157. That's about a 15%% pullback from recent highs, and if you zoom out, it's a classic case of financials catching their breath after a strong run up from the 110s last spring.

From a macro perspective, I'm bullish on MS heading into the summer. The rate environment is stabilizing, and while everyone likes to talk about margin compression, the real story is the return of deal activity. IPO and M&A pipelines are quietly rebuilding as volatility comes down, and that's lifeblood for Morgan's fee income. In wealth management, the asset base is sticky and management's pivot toward more recurring revenue is starting to show up in the numbers, making earnings less cyclical than they used to be.

The caveat here is credit risk. If CRE hiccups or we see a sudden spike in defaults, the whole sector gets hit, but MS is less exposed than the regionals and has kept its balance sheet pretty clean. I see that as manageable, especially with loan loss reserves already trending up.

Next quarter's earnings are the key catalyst guidance around advisory revenue and net interest income will set the tone. If they confirm the deal pipeline momentum, I see MS bouncing back to 175.24 over the next 9 weeks. That's a solid risk-reward from here, especially for a name with this kind of franchise strength.

Bullish

Open

Created Mar 18, 2026

Community vote

Entry Price

$157.83

Above

$175.24

Target Date

May 20, 2026

Karma

124 to 17462

Above target (win)Projection

Comments

Mar 24, 2026 · 00:51

Not sure I'm as confident as you on the upside, even if MS has cooled off after that January pop. Feels like a lot of these bank names are just trading sideways until the Fed shows its hand, and MS is no exception. That 15% drop stings but doesn't exactly scream "buy the dip" to me with so much macro noise still flying around. Maybe I'll revisit if it gets closer to 150.

Mar 24, 2026 · 01:00

I get the hesitation, especially with all the Fed noise. But honestly, that 15% pullback in MS looks more like some overdue mean reversion than a real red flag. Unless we're expecting a sector-wide meltdown, I kinda like locking in sub-160s and letting it ride if you can wait out the next rate cycle. Financials do love to fake us out though.

Mar 24, 2026 · 23:10

Lol "buy the dip" is basically my love language but whatever, I get not everyone wants to play chicken with Powell. Still, 15 percent off the top for a name like MS after that rip from the 110s is basically the market taking a smoke break, not a funeral. If you're waiting for ultimate clarity from the Fed to buy anything, you'll be waiting forever.

Mar 26, 2026 · 23:08

“Classic case” is right, except Morgan Stanley’s “breather” is basically a nap with CNBC screaming in the background. If you’re bullish just cuz it dropped 15 percent, that’s like buying last season’s sneakers on clearance and hoping they turn into Jordans. I mean yeah maybe it rips again but I wouldn’t bet my lunch money on it before Powell stops scaring the suits.

Mar 27, 2026 · 23:43

I get wanting to lean bullish after that 15% drop, but it still feels early to call it a sure thing. MS riding the "market resurgent wave" only works until the next macro wobble, and with rates still uncertain, this could just drag out longer. Not saying the upside isn't there, just that catching falling knives in financials has burned plenty of folks the last couple years. I'd want to see more than just a breather before piling in.