The last year for BBY has felt like a choppy ride. If you look at the price action, we went from the low 70s last spring, spiked up to just over 81 in November, and then slid back down to the mid 60s by March. Right now it's sitting at 62.98, which feels pretty close to its lower support for the past 12 months. I’d call my stance cautiously bullish here, but with a short leash.

Consumer electronics retail isn’t exactly a growth story, but BBY still throws off decent cash and management isn’t shy about buybacks. I'm expecting margin pressure to ease somewhat as supply chain headaches normalize, and inventory seems better managed compared to last year’s glut. Their services business, while not huge, gives them a bit of insulation if hardware sales slow. I’m targeting a rebound back to 74.00, which is about where BBY traded most recently before the latest drawdown.

The risk is pretty obvious: any sign of consumer weakness, especially if unemployment ticks up or financing gets tighter, and the whole sector takes a leg lower. BBY doesn’t have a rosy growth narrative to fall back on. I wouldn’t hang around if the company guides down in the next quarter or so. If there’s a catalyst, I’m watching for an earnings report that shows stabilization on sales and margins. If we see that and maybe a small beat, the market probably rotates back in for a relief rally.