EQT's chart honestly gives me a bit of pause right now. Over the past year, it's ranged from the high 40s to the mid 60s with a few sharp swings up and down. For every pop above 60, like in March, it seems to drop back to the mid 50s not long after. Makes it tough to feel super confident leaning in hard at this level, since it's sitting at 56.22 as of now and has gone basically nowhere net in a year despite all that movement. Volatility is there, but there’s not a convincing trend up or down.

I’m overall neutral to slightly bearish here. My target is 50.50, which is about 10% lower than where we are now. Natural gas prices just haven’t shown much strength lately, and EQT’s earnings are pretty tied to that cycle. Sure, they’ve cut costs and tried some hedging, but that only gets you so far if the underlying commodity keeps getting hammered. Plus, there’s persistent concern about oversupply in the US market (Marcellus in particular) and the export story hasn’t played out as fast as bulls hoped.

That said, I’m not saying this is a disaster. The biggest risk to short term downside is just a surprise move in nat gas pricing any cold snap or geopolitical event could throw off my call quickly. Also, management has kept a reasonable balance sheet, so it’s not like the company is in distress. If anything, a steady dividend and some opportunistic buybacks could limit the downside. But I don’t see a clear near term catalyst to break the stock out higher maybe Q2 production guidance, but unless it's a big beat I’m not expecting fireworks.

So, I’m sitting on the sidelines or maybe trimming a bit until there’s more clarity on the demand side for natural gas. If EQT can show evidence of better pricing power or a material shift in export trends, I’d consider getting constructive again. Until then, I think 50.50 is a likely retest in the next few months.