OKTA's chart this year is just a slow motion car crash. It was flirting with 125 less than a year ago and now we're staring at 83.90. The slide isn’t random noise either sentiment totally flipped around last summer and it's been a pretty clear downtrend ever since, with a couple of limp attempts at bouncing. I know a lot of people blame security specific hiccups and execution stumbles, but the reality is there's been a lot of management turnover and customers are sitting on their hands when it comes to new contracts.

I’m leaning bearish here with a target of 68.00. Customer growth has stalled and while they're trying to pivot more to enterprise, there’s just not evidence it’s catching on in the near term. They keep talking up pipeline but last quarter’s numbers didn’t inspire confidence. Also, their competitors are getting more aggressive on pricing and I don’t see OKTA having enough moat to fight that off without more pain to gross margin.

One thing to watch is next quarter’s guidance if they guide down again, I think that’s when you see another leg lower. But honestly, even a slight beat probably just gets shrugged at these levels. The risk I see is if they announce a major strategic partnership or even buyout chatter catches fire, because a name this beaten up could absolutely rip on any headline. That’s not the base case, though.

I wouldn’t rush to short the absolute bottom, but if the trend holds, we could see 68.00 in the next 8 weeks. There's just too many headwinds right now.