I've been watching MRK's price action closely over the past year, and the move from sub-80 last summer to where we are now around 115 has been nothing short of impressive. It's not just a bounce this is a breakout, fueled by both sector rotation back into defensives and a string of clinical wins that have reignited interest in big pharma. Even after this run, I don't think the market's fully pricing in the next leg up.

The core story for Merck is the durability of Keytruda, but that's not the only pillar anymore. The pipeline has shown real breadth, with recent positive updates in oncology and vaccines offering diversification that should support earnings growth even as competitive dynamics in immunotherapy heat up. This matters in the current macro backdrop: as rates remain elevated and risk assets get choppier, institutional flows are likely to favor companies with visible cash flows and less exposure to cyclical revenue swings.

One risk here is the looming patent expirations, especially as biosimilar threats become more tangible. But the market seems to be overestimating the near-term impact. Management's been proactive about M&A and late-stage pipeline investments, which cushions some of that cliff. As long as the pipeline execution continues at this pace, the downside should be manageable.

The next earnings print is the key catalyst. If guidance gets bumped on the back of those vaccine launches or if we see a positive surprise in China sales, I think MRK can trade up to 134.08 within the next 10 weeks. The momentum is there, and the setup is favorable for a defensive compounder like Merck in this environment.