I've watched BAC grind up from the low 40s to the mid-50s over the last year, and it’s given back a chunk recently, now sitting at 46.83. With that pullback, I’m actually leaning bullish here, targeting 54.20 over the next couple months. The market’s been punishing the whole banking sector for macro worries, but fundamentally, Bank of America's core business just keeps chugging along.
The main thing that stands out is BAC's net interest income, which remains strong even as rate cut expectations have shifted around. They’ve managed their deposit base better than a lot of competitors, and loan growth is steady, not spectacular, but steady. The cost cutting initiatives that started last year are actually showing up in the numbers now, with expense ratios improving quarter by quarter. That matters because if the Fed finally does go into easing mode, BAC will still be able to crank out decent returns on equity instead of getting squeezed like some of the smaller banks.
The wild card is credit quality. If we get a hard landing, charge-offs could tick up, and while BAC’s loan book is diversified, it’s not immune. That’s a real risk, no question. But right now, delinquencies are still within historical norms, and the reserve build they did in 2023 gives them some cushion. I’m not ignoring the risk, just think it’s more than priced in given the recent pullback.
Next earnings are the near-term catalyst, especially if they show continued deposit stability and tame expense growth. If that comes through, I think we see 54.20 in the next 10 weeks. Not flashy, but for a big bank, that’s a pretty solid move.