So MS has been a bit of a ride over the past year. Looking at the price action, it clawed its way from about 110 last spring up to the current 189 area, which is a pretty wild run for a big financial name. There were a couple of dips like the drop through February and March back down towards 160 but it bounced back quick. Not sure if we see that kind of volatility again soon, but it definitely caught my eye.
I'm leaning bullish here. I think there's still room to grind higher, even after this run. They've been showing solid wealth management growth, and that division's fee streams are sticky as hell. Capital markets activity isn't dead, and if rates stabilize instead of staying choppy, that's even more upside for their deal pipeline. I want to see MS push up to 215.00 in the next few months, which feels doable about a 25 point move from now. Not “rocket ship” stuff, but still enough to care about if you size it right.
What could mess this up? If commercial real estate exposure blows up for big banks again or credit cracks wide open, whole sector could get dragged. And honestly, there’s a lot riding on how the next two quarters of earnings look guidance hiccup or bad headlines, and you’ll see fast profit taking after this run. I wouldn’t call it bulletproof at these levels.
That said, MS has an investor day coming up this summer. If management shows more clarity on long term margins or signals a bump to buybacks, that could be a pretty clean catalyst. Watching for any signs they can keep comp and expenses in check while growing that fee base. If that gets confirmed, I want to be long for the next leg up.
