Bullish MDT thesis by longtermleo

MDT - Medtronic Plc - Healthcare

MDT has been on a rough slide for months. Just last November it was over 100, and now it's scraping $73.81. That's a big drawdown, and from looking at the price history, it's been a pretty steady downward trend since about February. There's a risk in thinking it's "cheap" just because it's near the year's low, but I'm not rushing to call a bottom either.

Bullish case for me is pretty simple: Medtronic still throws off cash, and the dividend's not at risk. They haven't had major negative surprises on the fundamentals side, more just a general drag from slower elective procedures and some headwinds in China. The company's been investing in new product lines (the diabetes CGM business could move the needle if management executes) and their scale gives them some margin safety if healthcare spending rebounds.

That said, the clear risk is dead money for a while. If US hospital procedure volumes don't pick up, or if their diabetes pipeline slips even a quarter, there's probably a lot more sideways than up. Also, it's hard to ignore how weak the stock's been bouncing from $90s to mid 70s in under six months isn't just macro noise. Could be some fund outflows or rotating away from sleepy medtech, so don't expect a quick pop.

The near term catalyst I'm watching is their next earnings call. If they can show any progress on the diabetes launch narrative or guide a little better on margins, I think you'll see a relief bounce. My target's pretty modest I'm looking for a move back to $83.00 over the next 12 weeks. Not shooting for the moon, just a grind higher if they can settle the story a bit.

Bullish

Open

Created May 30, 2026

Community vote

Entry Price

$73.81

Above

$83.00

Target Date

Aug 22, 2026

Karma

119 to 16960

Above target (win)Projection

Comments

Jun 1, 2026 · 13:26

So you’re basically betting on “it can’t get much worse” and the dividend holds up? That’s a gutsy move, not gonna lie. I get the cash flow angle but this thing has been a falling knife and catching those usually hurts. If you’re just here for the divvy, fine, but don’t pretend the chart isn’t ugly as hell right now.

Jun 4, 2026 · 13:41

Alright, but come on, MDT isn’t some trash biotech that’s about to run out of money. It got smacked, but their cash flow is still alive and the dividend’s not getting slashed. Yeah, the chart is ugly, but if they’re still printing money someone’s gonna wake up eventually. If not, I’ll take my dividend and wait for people to remember it’s not bankrupt.

Jun 4, 2026 · 23:23

I get the cash flow and dividend argument, but honestly, I’m still worried about catching a falling knife here. Just because it’s down huge doesn’t mean it can’t go lower, especially if market sentiment flips again. The “not at risk” dividend is nice though, that does steady my hand a bit. Not sure I’d call this a screaming buy, but I see why you’d want to hold your nose and grab some.

Jun 7, 2026 · 14:51

MDT has been getting bodied for months, but I get why you’d want to YOLO in for the divvy and cash flow. It’s not exactly some meme penny stock about to get delisted. Honestly, if management doesn’t randomly faceplant, I can see a bounce, but I’m not expecting liftoff rockets either. Might just be the world’s slowest dead cat.

Jun 8, 2026 · 14:22

I get wanting to step in here since the dividend looks solid and MDT isn’t in junk territory, but that chart is nasty and I’m not seeing a real catalyst yet. Holding for the yield makes sense if you’ve got patience and don’t mind more chop, but picking bottoms just because it “feels cheap” is dangerous. I’d maybe leg in slow if you’re set on it, but I’d want to see at least a little stabilization before getting too bullish.