ZTS has gotten absolutely wrecked this year. Just looking at the chart, the stock was cruising above 160 less than a year ago and now it’s sitting at 79.44. The drop from 145 ish in March to sub 80 in May is pretty brutal. There was a stepladder down since last summer, but the recent leg feels like something broke maybe an ugly earnings miss or some major guide down spooked everyone? Either way, it’s trading at multi year lows and looks pretty washed out.

I’m leaning bullish here, mostly because this is still the biggest name in animal health. Pet care spending is sticky, and even if things slow, vet clinics aren’t about to stop ordering meds and vaccines. ZTS has a fat pipeline, recurring revenue, and doesn’t feel like a terminal decline story. I’m setting a 15% upside target with a price of 91.35. Not shooting for the moon, just expecting a dead cat bounce or at least some mean reversion if they show any signs of stabilizing the business.

Main risk is that something structural really did break maybe a patent issue, regulatory mess, or demand falling way more than expected. If they guide down again next quarter, this could just be dead money for months. That’s why I’m not loading the boat, just starting a position.

Big catalyst to watch is next earnings. If management addresses the concerns head on and doesn’t drop another bomb, I think ZTS will get a relief rally. Not a hero trade, but feels like a spot where the bad news is mostly priced in unless there’s another shoe to drop.