Looking at META around 632.51, I have to say this is not the cleanest setup lately. There’s been a pretty wide swing in the last several months a high near 775 last fall, a deep drop below 600 in November, and most recently bouncing between about 610 and 670. That kind of volatility makes it hard to call this “cheap,” especially with a pretty big retracement just in the last few weeks.

Still, I lean cautiously bullish here, targeting 735.00 over the next quarter or so. META’s continued discipline on cost control has been a clear positive, and the company keeps finding ways to grow engagement even as the big Facebook/Instagram engines look a bit mature. As messy as the chart looks, I’m inclined to give management credit for staying focused on margins and keeping buybacks going, which has consistently supported the stock in the last couple cycles.

The risk is pretty obvious: there’s not a ton of room for error in expectations, and if there’s another big guide down or even a perception that user growth is flattening, we might see another move below 600. The last dip to the high 500s was not pleasant, and it could easily happen again if market mood sours. The volatility is a real concern. I’m not throwing around big position sizes here.

Upcoming earnings will be key if they can deliver a solid print and perhaps reiterate confidence on forward guidance, that should be enough to get back toward the 700s. Not a home run, but a reasonable move given how much air has already come out of the stock since last year’s highs.