Looking at FANG lately feels like watching someone slowly but surely win a long game of Tetris. The last year has been a pretty steady climb from the low 130s to almost 191 as of this month, with only a handful of quick dips that got bought up fast. So the trend is definitely up and to the right, and I think there’s more left to go just not the wild moves people sometimes hope for.

I’m bullish here, but not swinging for fences. Setting my target at 211.00 over the next 10 weeks. I see two big reasons why: first, commodity prices have been surprisingly resilient given all the macro hand wringing, and FANG has kept expenses in check compared to a lot of peers. Their last earnings print was all about disciplined capex and free cash flow, not aggressive growth for its own sake. Second, management seems content to buy back shares and increase dividends rather than chase M&A, which usually works out better for shareholders in the long run. The improved balance sheet gives them a nice cushion if oil stumbles.

The risk I can’t ignore: if WTI drops back to the low 60s, these guys will get hit just like any other upstream player. Doesn’t matter how efficient you are if the whole sector’s repricing. And with the chart moving up this quickly in the past couple months, any negative surprise could mean a quick 10 to 15 point flush before things settle.

For the near term, eyes are on Q2 guidance if they stick to their capital discipline and edge up the dividend again, I think the “steady compounder” narrative stays intact. I’m not expecting fireworks, but I do expect a little more juice out of this move before it gets fully priced in.