CMCSA is sitting at 26.24 right now, and that number kind of jumps out when you look at where it was a year ago. This thing traded above 35 last summer before a pretty steady grind down to the current lows. Some of that was obviously deserved (cord cutting isn’t slowing down, linear TV is struggling, and ad markets have been a mess), but I think at this level there’s a little too much doom baked in.

I’m bullish here and see CMCSA making a reasonable move back to 30.75 in the next couple months. Reason one: their broadband business still throws off a ton of cash, and it hasn’t shrunk nearly as fast as the market keeps worrying it will. Second, you’ve actually got streaming (Peacock) stabilizing subscriber losses and slowly growing revenues. Not world beating, but way better than the disaster scenario people keep expecting. And the theme parks segment is still a bright spot. It’s not flashy, but that side of the business has been quietly outperforming.

The big risk is that they guide down again, especially if the ad market stays soft or broadband finally starts bleeding faster. Would not shock me if that happened this isn’t a zero risk setup by any stretch. Also, debt is something to keep an eye on if rates stay sticky.

Next catalyst is earnings, which should give some clarity on whether the floor is really in down here. If management can calm the market with a steady guide (or even just avoid a negative surprise), I think 30.75 is doable. Not calling a moonshot, just a bounce out of the penalty box.