Bullish LIN thesis by valuewithnina

LIN - Linde Plc. - Basic Materials

I've been following LIN for a while, and the recent price recovery from the December lows below 400 to just under 500 signals that something has shifted in the market's sentiment. Even after that run, I think there's still significant upside here if you're willing to look past the headline multiples and focus on the underlying quality of the business. LIN isn't a flashy growth story, but it's quietly compounding earnings and cash flows year after year, which is exactly what I want to see for a deep value play that rewards patience.

The real moat for LIN is its scale and essential nature industrial gases are mission-critical across healthcare, chips, and energy, and the switching costs for customers are huge. The company has pricing power that's held up even when input costs have fluctuated, and that's a big reason margins have remained solid through various macro cycles. Plus, the balance sheet is clean and management's allocation has been disciplined, with steady buybacks and dividends to support shareholder returns.

That said, I do worry a bit about how much optimism is now getting baked in after this price surge. If we see another macro wobble or a slowdown in industrial activity, LIN could pull back just as quickly as it rebounded. But looking forward, the next earnings report is the big catalyst if management guides for stable cash flows and reaffirms their margin targets, I believe we could see this stock re-rate higher.

I'm targeting 572.30 over the next 14 weeks. That's a decent move from here, but with LIN's history of execution and the sector tailwinds, I think the risk/reward still lines up well for patient investors willing to ride out some volatility.

Bullish

Created Mar 22, 2026

Community vote

Entry Price

$488.15

Above

$572.30

Target Date

Jun 28, 2026

Karma

116 to 16658

Above target (win)Projection

Comments

Mar 26, 2026 · 00:10

I get where you're coming from with the whole "ignore the multiples" angle, but at this price it's hard not to at least squint at valuation. LIN definitely isn't sexy but maybe that's the point. If they keep compounding like you say, the upside could be slow and steady. Not sure I'd chase it after a 20 percent move though, especially if sentiment flips again.

Mar 26, 2026 · 23:53

I get the appeal of sticking with a steady compounder like LIN even after a big bounce, but you're right that it's not exactly cheap here. The market does seem to be warming back up to boring old quality, though, and if they keep delivering those cash flows it might not matter what the multiples look like right now. Still feels a little rich for my blood but I see how you get there.

Mar 30, 2026 · 14:36

“Look past the headline multiples” is classic boomer investor cope but honestly, you’re not wrong. This is like the ultimate stealth wealth stock. You don’t get fireworks, you just quietly get a bigger bag every year. I’ll take sleepy compounding over chasing hype garbage all day, even if I have to pay up a bit.

Apr 4, 2026 · 22:34

Honestly, I’m definitely more comfortable with “quietly compounding” than most of the lotto ticket plays I see. But man, even if you believe the market’s shifted, it’s still hard for me to shake the sticker shock here. I get the quality argument and I don’t hate the patience, but at 500 bucks I’d be trimming before I’d add.

Apr 3, 2026 · 23:25

Steady cash machine with the personality of a toaster. Still, you can’t argue with the returns. As long as you’re not expecting meme stock moon shots, LIN is basically the boring uncle who retires rich while everyone else is chasing the next big thing. Could chug higher for years and nobody would even notice till it’s $600.