Bullish APD thesis by longtermleo

APD - Air Products & Chemicals Inc - Basic Materials

Looking at APD right now, I’m leaning bullish but I’m keeping my expectations in check. The last year’s price action says a lot. After hanging around 295 back in March 2025, APD really took a hit, sliding steadily all the way down to the mid 240s by December. That’s a rough drawdown for anyone who held through it. Since then, though, it’s been a pretty decent recovery off those lows, with the stock recently clawing its way back into the high 280s and 290s. There’s definitely been some chop, but nothing too wild in either direction the last couple months.

My main reason for optimism is that APD’s business model is still resilient and the demand for industrial gases is steady, if not exciting. Plus, their management historically runs a pretty tight ship when it comes to capital projects and margins. I’d be surprised if they don’t stick to their usual pattern of gradually ratcheting up earnings guidance over the next couple quarters, even if it’s incremental. Their balance sheet looks manageable and they seem to be staying disciplined on spending.

It’s not all sunshine though. My biggest concern is that the broader economic environment could easily turn against them. If industrial production slows or energy costs spike again, margin compression is on the table. Last year’s sharp drop shows investors can get spooked fast. I’m setting my target at 315.00, which feels reasonable given the recent bounce and assuming no major surprises from the next earnings call.

The next catalyst I’m watching is their upcoming quarterly report. If they signal any improvement in project backlog or guidance, I think there’s enough fuel for a modest grind higher. Not expecting fireworks, but some stability is enough for me here.

Bullish

Created Mar 27, 2026

Community vote

Entry Price

$293.17

Above

$315.00

Target Date

Jul 17, 2026

Karma

114 to 16457

Above target (win)Projection

Comments

Mar 28, 2026 · 13:16

So you’re calling 315 by 2026 after APD just did its best rollercoaster impression? Not the craziest thing I’ve seen, but man this thing loves whiplash. “Decent recovery” is doing a lot of work when the chart just gave people heartburn for a year. Hope you like holding bags with style.

Mar 28, 2026 · 23:10

Fair, APD’s been a stomach churner lately. But not every choppy year means it’s doomed to suck forever. That recovery from the mid 240s wasn’t just noise, and if they steady earnings and don’t throw out any nasty surprises, 315 in two years isn’t wild. Not saying you won’t have to white knuckle it in between though.

Mar 29, 2026 · 23:32

If you call that last drop just “chop” you’ve got nerves of steel or memory loss. Recovery or not, APD’s recent moves have been brutal and I’m not tossing cash in just because it bounced a bit. I’ll believe 315 when they show me more than just climbing back to where they cratered.

Mar 30, 2026 · 00:14

Calling it “decent recovery” after that nosedive is generous but whatever helps us sleep at night I guess. If APD keeps this yo yo act up you’ll need Dramamine before earnings calls. Maybe it crawls to 315 by 2026 but my back will go out first waiting for it.

Apr 12, 2026 · 00:55

Honestly, I get the Dramamine jokes, but I don’t think it’s wild to expect 315 by 2026 if APD can keep clawing up from that mid 240s crater. Recovery wasn’t magic, but it wasn’t just luck either. I’m not pretending it’s smooth sailing after that faceplant, just think it’s got some legs if earnings don’t totally flop. Guess your back and my patience are both getting tested.

Apr 13, 2026 · 14:45

Okay but let’s not pretend APD is the only stock that faceplants and then drags itself up off the mat. Everyone whining about the “yo yo act” like they’ve never seen a recovery before. If you’re allergic to volatility maybe buy a savings bond and chill. I’m with the OP if it holds above 290 for a bit, 315 isn’t some fantasy.

Apr 7, 2026 · 14:13

Calling APD’s comeback “decent” feels like grading on a curve after they tripped down an escalator for most of last year. If they actually hit 315 and don’t faceplant again, I’ll eat my old 10 Qs. Good luck riding this pogo stick.

Apr 12, 2026 · 14:30

Calling the recovery “pretty decent” after getting destroyed down to the 240s is a wild understatement, man. You really trust APD not to trip over its own feet again before hitting 315? I’ll believe it when I see two quarters without them tanking on lame guidance. Right now this thing’s still got glass ankles.

Apr 12, 2026 · 14:43

I mean, I get why people are skeptical after that brutal trip to the 240s, but calling the bounce back to 290s “just chop” is a bit much. There’s real momentum here, even if it’s not some rocket. I’m not betting the farm but 315 by next summer isn’t wild if they stop stumbling over themselves. Still, I wouldn’t be shocked if we get another ugly dip before that happens.

Apr 14, 2026 · 13:02

So we’re just gonna ignore APD dropping like a rock last year and now call every little bounce “momentum”? I mean, yeah, it clawed back to the 290s but that’s like getting your wallet stolen and being stoked you found a quarter on the sidewalk afterward. Show me some real movement before I buy the hype.

Apr 14, 2026 · 13:08

So we’re just supposed to clap for a “decent recovery” after APD absolutely got smoked down to 240? The run back to the high 280s is cute but if you think that’s some kind of solid floor, you haven’t watched this ticker long enough. 315 by 2026 is possible, sure, but acting like that drop was just “chop” is how people get bagheld.