Anyone else watching EXPE lately? The stock’s been on a bit of a rollercoaster over the last year. From where it sat last April (down at 151.59) to that big rip in December (peaking at 285.59), then tanked hard in February below 200, and now it's bounced back up to 248.57. That’s some serious volatility for a travel stock. Not exactly the kind of movement that inspires total confidence if you’re risk averse like me.

I’m leaning bearish in the short to medium term with a target of 215.00. Here’s why: first, that post holiday bounce didn’t stick, and the fade through early spring looks more like travel demand softening than just market noise. There’s also a lot of aggressive pricing and promo activity in online travel right now, and I’m not convinced Expedia’s moat is getting any wider. Their costs have crept up, especially marketing. Even as they try to push more direct bookings, it’s becoming harder to keep margins up. Seasonally, Q2 isn’t usually their friend, and this year feels even iffier with growing macro pressure on discretionary spend.

Caveat: if there’s a real upside, it would be another sustained jump in international travel, or maybe a competitor stumbles. The upcoming earnings release is the catalyst to watch if they guide higher on bookings or show clear progress reining in promo spending, the stock can buck the trend. But if they don’t deliver, this probably gets repriced lower.

I don’t see a collapse, just more downside than upside for now. If EXPE drifts down toward 215.00 over the next 7 weeks, I wouldn’t be shocked.