Taking a look at SHW around 334.38, it's hard to ignore how choppy the last year has been. There were a few strong bursts (like the August and February spikes up near 365 367), but every rally seems to roll right back over. Lately it's actually been sliding, with that March dip to 310 territory still feeling pretty recent. Feels less like "steady compounder" and more like "ping pong ball" at this point.
I'm still leaning cautious/bullish here, though, with a target of 356.00. The underlying business is very resilient: DIY paint demand may fluctuate, but commercial and industrial projects are slowly grinding higher again, and raw material costs have become less unpredictable than a couple years ago. Plus, management doesn’t usually overpromise earnings guides from SHW tend to be on the conservative side and that builds trust, at least for me.
That said, I don’t love the macro right now. Interest rate worries stick around, and another push above 4 percent on the 10 year could slow renovation spending. If the Fed signals it’s staying hawkish (or if housing data really rolls over), SHW probably won’t buck the sector trend for long. Also worth noting: that drop to 310 was sharp and could repeat if the market gets spooked.
The main near term catalyst is next quarter’s report. If they deliver a beat with any upside in margin commentary, I think you’ll see another run at the high 350s where it’s topped out before. Just not expecting fireworks slow and steady is the most I’m hoping for here, so I’d watch for a move up toward 356.00 over the next 8 weeks and keep a tight leash if the market turns risk off again.
