Bullish MCD thesis by danielcharts

MCD - McDonald`s Corp - Consumer Cyclical

I've been tracking MCD for a while now and the recent price action really caught my eye. After grinding sideways for months in the 300 to 315 range, it finally broke out sharply in February, popping from the low 300s up to a recent peak of 334.56. That's a solid technical move, but since then it's pulled back to 327.94. I see this as a healthy retracement after that run, not the start of a breakdown.

The setup looks promising because the stock showed resilience during last year's chop, bouncing every time it dipped below 300. That kind of support, especially in a consumer staple like McDonald's, suggests institutions are still buyers on weakness. Also, we're heading into the spring season, when restaurant comps tend to pick up. If they give bullish guidance or post a strong comp in the next earnings, that could be the spark for the next leg up.

That said, I'd be careful here. The move from 287 in June to 335 in February was big, and if broader markets get wobbly or we see a consumer slowdown, MCD could revisit support in the low 310s. But as long as it keeps holding above the 315 level and doesn't lose the 200-day, I'm bullish for a push back toward 343.21 in the next few weeks.

Earnings are the obvious catalyst, and any upside surprise on margins or international growth will get the algos involved again. I'm watching the price action closely around those events. If you get a weak tape and it can't hold 315, that's my stop.

Bullish

Open

Created Mar 19, 2026

Community vote

Entry Price

$315.73

Above

$343.21

Target Date

May 7, 2026

Karma

126 to 17663

Above target (win)Projection

Comments

Mar 25, 2026 · 13:03

I get what you’re saying about the retracement looking healthy, but MCD’s been weirdly choppy for a while. The breakout in Feb was nice, but it didn’t last long and macro stuff could still throw it off. I’m not against a slow grind higher, just not sure I’d call 327 “resilient” with consumer spending slowing down. Would wait for more conviction honestly.

Mar 26, 2026 · 13:58

Honestly if MCD showing a bit of backbone in this clown market isn’t “resilient” then I don’t know what is. I’ll take some sideways burger action over dumpster fire small caps any day. Sure, macro could nuke everything but you can’t keep the golden arches down forever. Holding through the chop and just collecting those fries, er, dividends.

Mar 28, 2026 · 00:00

I get why you see that pullback as just a retracement, but MCD does this all the time quick bursts then back to slow grind. The last breakout faded pretty quickly, so it might drift for a while before it tries anything big again. Still, the fact it held up last year when everything else was falling apart is hard to ignore. Not the most exciting ride, but I can see the case for sticking with it.