Looking at DXCM at 72.10, things feel a little shaky underneath the surface. You can see in the price action over the past year: DXCM has been tossed around from highs near 89 in late summer last year all the way down to lows around 59 in November. Even more recently, we saw a rebound to about 74 in late Jan, but it's still a choppy ride. That kind of volatility usually makes me pause before getting too excited.

I lean bullish here, but not by a wide margin. My target is 81.00. The main thing that keeps me interested is that, despite all the swings, management has kept revenue growth pretty solid quarter to quarter. CGM (continuous glucose monitoring) adoption still looks like it's got room to run, and their tech has actual staying power at least compared to some of their competitors. Margins have also held up better than I expected, especially given all the supply chain headwinds last year.

But there's a real risk that pricing pressure comes in harder than people anticipate, especially if insurers start pushing back. That's not something you can just ignore if payers squeeze them, it cuts right into their expansion case. Also worth flagging that the market seems skittish any time guidance gets tweaked, so no one should get too comfortable here.

The next big move could come with the Q2 results. If they can show not just user growth but some stabilization in ASPs (average selling prices), I think the stock could get a bump. But I’m keeping a tight leash on this one if the business starts to wobble, I’d rather step aside than try to outsmart a falling knife.