Looking at ROKU's recent run, I'm not eager to chase it much higher from here. The stock was sitting in the low 70s just last summer and it's steadily climbed to around 112 now. There's been some volatility on the way up, but the overall trend's been positive. That said, it already got close to 115 just days ago, so anyone expecting a straight shot up from here should probably temper their excitement.

I'm leaning cautiously bullish, but only to a target of 123.50. That's about 10 percent upside from here. The main thing supporting that view is continued ad platform growth, which management keeps calling out as stabilizing after the rough patch in digital ad spending last year. Also, connected TV adoption hasn't really slowed down, and ROKU is still a pretty clear leader in the space, especially in the US.

One thing that really tempers my enthusiasm is competition. Smart TV makers are now baking in their own OS and ad platforms, and while ROKU's still got the scale advantage for now, the moat isn't as wide as it used to be. Any stumble in keeping eyeballs or a major ad client loss could hit the stock hard given how much optimism is now priced in.

Next earnings are the big catalyst. A beat and a raised guide could push it toward that 123.50 level, but a miss or weak commentary on margins and growth rates would probably see it retrace some of these gains. Not backing up the truck here, but there's still a bit of room for cautious optimism.