Bullish CMCSA thesis by chrisinvests

CMCSA - Comcast Corp - Class A - Communication Services

CMCSA's chart looks a bit like a ski slope the past year. Zooming out, it was hanging out in the mid 30s last summer, then just kept sliding every couple weeks nothing catastrophic, but it went from 35 to under 28 before this month. Now it's trading at 25.03, which is a level not seen since the early pandemic. Feels like a lot of pain has already been priced in.

I think we're bottoming out here. The core business (cable, broadband, NBCUniversal) isn't exactly exciting, but it's stable cashflow. The market seems to have gotten overly pessimistic about cord cutting and streaming losses, but the company still throws off solid free cash. There’s also the looming possibility they’ll get more aggressive on buybacks at these levels, which would put a floor under the stock. I’m looking for a rebound to 29.00 over the next couple months.

Biggest risk is competition streaming is a knife fight and if Peacock keeps burning cash or if broadband subscriber losses accelerate, the multiple could compress further. Not going to pretend that can’t happen. But at 25 bucks this is a defensive play with a decent margin of safety for me.

Next earnings (should be late July) is a catalyst to watch. If they talk up improved streaming economics or announce buybacks/div hikes, that could be the spark for a move back to the high 20s. Not an adrenaline rush stock, but I like the risk/reward from here, aiming for 29.00 by the end of summer.

Bullish

Open

Created May 12, 2026

Community vote

Entry Price

$25.03

Above

$29.00

Target Date

Aug 11, 2026

Karma

118 to 16859

Above target (win)Projection

Comments

May 12, 2026 · 14:41

Man, calling it a ski slope is spot on. This thing’s been straight up doing the Shaun White routine since last year. I kinda get the “pain is priced in” logic but do people even care about cable anymore? I’ll bite on the cashflow but I’m only in if Peacock stops burning money like it’s Monopoly cash.

May 14, 2026 · 14:20

Peacock lighting money on fire is honestly my biggest hesitation too, but the legacy cable and broadband side still prints cash even if nobody brags about owning Comcast. I don't think cable's totally dead yet, and at 25 it sort of looks like the market's already written it off. If they just keep the streaming losses from getting worse, there’s room for a bounce.

May 14, 2026 · 14:37

I’m not about to call a bottom on this until they show they’re actually reigning in streaming losses. The “stable cashflow” argument is real but if cord cutting keeps speeding up, even that’s shaky long term. Short term, could see a dead cat bounce I guess, but I wouldn’t go heavy here until you see some proof they’re not just coasting on old business.

May 14, 2026 · 13:32

Lmao, “ski slope” is generous this thing’s been sledding with no brakes. I get the bottom fishing vibe, though. Nobody’s getting hyped about cable, but that boring cashflow keeps paying the bills. Feels like buying socks on Black Friday. Not sexy but you’ll probably be glad you did.

May 14, 2026 · 22:53

I’m with you that the current price bakes in a lot of the rough stuff, but I’m still wary about how much lower broadband growth might go if the economy gets weird or cable churn speeds up even more. The stable cashflow is a plus, but it’s not bulletproof. Just feels like if one more thing sours, the floor could drop again. I’d want to see an actual quarter or two of “not worse” before catching this thing.

May 15, 2026 · 00:41

Honestly, I see where you’re coming from with “a lot of pain has already been priced in,” but I just can’t shake the thought that cable and broadband are running out of levers if things really slow down. Stable cashflow is nice until it isn’t and I don’t trust management to pivot fast if broadband hits a wall. I might dip a toe in at these lows, but I’m not going to back up the truck.

May 16, 2026 · 14:53

I hear you on management not being the most inspiring and the fact that cable and broadband aren’t sexy growth verticals anymore, but at 25 bucks, it’s not like the market expects them to reinvent the wheel. The cashflow’s not going to evaporate overnight, and you’ve got to figure a lot of the churn headlines are already baked in. Not sure I see them breaking out, but I think the “stable until proven otherwise” argument still holds some ground here.

May 18, 2026 · 13:30

Honestly, calling a bottom just because the chart looks ugly feels like catching knives, but you’re not wrong that 25 is dirt cheap for CMCSA’s cash machine. The “not exciting but stable” claim is fair this thing’s basically a utility now and it ain’t going bankrupt over Peacock. I wouldn’t back up the truck but picking some up here isn’t the dumbest gamble.

May 18, 2026 · 23:50

Honestly, I get the argument on “stable cashflow” at 25, and I’m with you that most of the ugly chart is probably priced in by now. Still, I’m not sure I’d call this a slam dunk with streaming and cord cutting doing their thing. Feels more like dead money for a while unless management surprises. But I guess if you’re patient, you might get paid just for sitting tight.

May 20, 2026 · 14:37

I mean, I get why you’re eyeing this as a bottom given how far it's fallen, but just because it looks “cheap” doesn’t mean it can’t get cheaper if broadband or cable takes another hit. Stable cashflow gives it a floor, but I’m not piling in until there’s some actual sign of recovery, not just that it stopped dropping for a minute. The dead cat bounce risk is real here.