Bearish HUBS thesis by longtermleo

HUBS - HubSpot Inc - Technology

That chart for HUBS is just rough. From $660+ last May down to sub $250 now there’s no sugarcoating it. I’m leaning bearish here with a target of $165.00 and won’t pretend the freefall is just because of one bad quarter. It’s been a steady decline with a few minor bounces along the way, but nothing to reverse the bigger trend.

There are a couple things that really make me nervous. First, the multiple compression isn’t just about the market. After that big re rating last August, HUBS hasn’t shown much to justify a higher valuation. Top line growth keeps slowing, and even though they’ve been pushing new features, they’re not translating into stronger numbers. Churn is creeping up, and their core SMB customers are probably still feeling the squeeze. I also just don’t see enough operational leverage to weather another macro hiccup.

Sure, maybe they could surprise with a cost cut announcement or some M&A talk, but that would be a short term pop at best. For the bulls, the main thing to watch is their next earnings report if they can hold the line on margins and show user growth isn’t rolling over, it could get interesting. But right now, too much risk for not enough reward.

The wild card is always some kind of acquisition or activist catalyst, but that’s not a bet I want to make at this price. For now, I see more downside before it finds a floor. If anything changes, happy to revisit, but not catching this one until I see a real sign of stability.

Bearish

Open

Created May 16, 2026

Community vote

Entry Price

$198.38

Below

$165.00

Target Date

Jul 25, 2026

Karma

122 to 17261

Below target (win)Projection

Comments

May 17, 2026 · 22:51

I get where you’re coming from. That drop from over $600 is brutal, and honestly the multiple compression probably isn’t done yet if they don’t convince the market they can still grow. I’m a little hesitant to go full bear with that $165 target unless we see a total collapse in software valuations, but the lack of any real bounce since the re rating does look ugly. Not trying to catch a falling knife here.

May 20, 2026 · 14:47

I see what you’re saying about the re rating last August not fixing anything. They’ve had plenty of time to show a turnaround and just haven’t. Hard to see the bottom when it’s this much of a drawn out slide. If the story hasn’t changed by now I doubt we’ll see any snapback soon.

May 21, 2026 · 14:24

Not gonna lie, that kind of steady grind lower is never a great sign. The fact that even after the big re rating they kept slipping says there’s something more broken here than just a rough patch. I’m not sure I see a catalyst to reverse it soon either, unless they pull off a seriously unexpected pivot. Wouldn’t be shocked if it does get close to your target.

May 21, 2026 · 23:34

Look, when a stock dumps this hard and still can’t drum up a dead cat bounce worth trading, that’s not just “the market, bro.” It legit feels like HUBS management’s asleep at the wheel or the story’s just busted. You’re calling $165 but honestly if this keeps up, knife catches are just gonna lose fingers.

May 26, 2026 · 00:57

Honestly, when a stock gets chopped down like HUBS has and can’t find any real floor, that says more than just “bad sentiment.” Not buying that it’s a quick fix with management either, especially since the post August re rating didn’t do squat long term. I’m with you until these guys prove they’ve got a real growth story left, I wouldn’t touch it.