Bullish ADBE thesis by anna_invests

ADBE - Adobe Inc - Technology

Pretty wild how far ADBE has come down over the last year. Looking at the price chart, this thing went from trading above 400 last June to now sitting at 250.71. That’s a brutal slide, and at this point, I think most of the air has come out. I wouldn’t say it’s a screaming buy, but there’s finally a decent margin of safety for the patient.

My stance is cautiously bullish from here, targeting 295.00 over the next few months. Not a moonshot, just a realistic bounce back toward where ADBE was in March. The company still has a serious hold on creative software for enterprise and media. That’s not going away overnight. I also expect them to drive some incremental growth with pricing adjustments and possible new product tiers that appeal to teams tightening budgets.

There’s a risk that all this price deflation has actually revealed demand problems that won’t resolve soon. If management has to guide down again or if the next earnings miss (which, let’s face it, isn’t impossible at this stage), I wouldn’t be shocked to see another leg lower. Margin pressure is real and so far, cost controls have only gone so far.

What I’ll be watching is their next quarterly call. If they can show stabilizing renewal rates and some kind of concrete path to revenue growth, I think that’s enough for a 15 percent move up from here. But I’m keeping my position size reasonable until there’s hard evidence. This is a wait and see rebound play, not a conviction bet.

Bullish

Open

Created May 1, 2026

Community vote

Entry Price

$250.71

Above

$295.00

Target Date

Jul 10, 2026

Karma

122 to 17261

Above target (win)Projection

Comments

May 4, 2026 · 14:22

Totally get the cautious angle here. That selloff’s been rough but I’m not convinced the pain is over yet with rates where they are and all the talk around software margins getting squeezed. Maybe it drifts up to 295 like you said but I’d want to see something change on the earnings side before really leaning in. Not rushing to grab this dip.

May 4, 2026 · 14:23

I hear you on the margin of safety, but I’m not sure 295 is that close with all the macro stuff still hanging over tech. ADBE got hammered for a reason fundamentals need to start showing up before I’d call this anything but a value trap in disguise. If you’re patient, maybe it works, but I wouldn’t expect any heroics this year.

May 8, 2026 · 14:40

I get what you’re saying, but I don’t think ADBE at 250 is just dead money. The macro stuff is ugly, sure, but Adobe’s still printing cash and it’s not like their business has fallen off a cliff. Maybe 295 isn’t next week, but if you’ve got the patience, I’d rather be nibbling here than chasing highs elsewhere. Not betting the farm, just don’t see value trap vibes unless their next couple quarters totally flop.

May 5, 2026 · 23:03

I get why you'd call it a margin of safety after that kind of beatdown, but honestly a move back to 295 feels like it needs more than just "it dropped a lot." The business is still solid, but there's gotta be a real recovery in sentiment and maybe some earnings strength before people pile back in. I don't hate the play, just not sure the risk/reward is as clear as it looks after that chart collapse.

May 6, 2026 · 13:10

Fair, it’s not just about the chart, but I can see the logic after such a massive drawdown. I kind of agree that beating down a name like ADBE this hard has probably wrung out most of the hype. Still, I’d want to see them actually start to stabilize the fundamentals before betting on any real bounce. Just hard to know if tech is done getting kicked around.

May 8, 2026 · 14:03

I get what you’re saying about most of the air being out, but “decent margin of safety” feels optimistic when earnings growth is still murky and everyone’s twitchy about software multiples. I’d want to see some actual traction in their numbers before calling 250 a floor. Might just be dead money for a bit longer.

May 9, 2026 · 00:54

I get your hesitation, honestly, but after a near 40 percent drop, calling 250 the new floor doesn’t sound that wild to me. The “margin of safety” argument only works if the core business is still solid, and Adobe hasn’t totally blown up its cash flow yet. I wouldn’t back up the truck here but 295 by next year isn’t some stretch if earnings stabilize. Just hard to see more panic selling unless something fundamental breaks.

May 9, 2026 · 22:01

I don’t totally disagree with that margin of safety isn’t exactly ironclad when there’s still a lot of noise around earnings. But after a 40 percent cliff dive, it does feel like some of the worst expectations are probably baked in now. If their next couple quarters show any kind of stabilization, I could see that 295 target not being unrealistic. Not betting the farm, but it’s not like ADBE suddenly turned into a dumpster fire either.

May 8, 2026 · 14:42

Calling a move to 295 “realistic” after that kind of crash makes sense if you’re betting the worst is priced in, but I’m not sure we’ve seen enough out of Adobe’s fundamentals for that bounce yet. I get the margin of safety argument after a 40 percent haircut, just not convinced it’ll move much unless revenues stop limping along. Not dead money, but might be a slog.