Hard to ignore how rough the past year has been for PTON. This stock was chilling above 8 bucks a few months back and now we're at 4.86. From what I see in the chart, it’s been a slow bleed from last fall with random pops that never held. So you’re probably wondering why anyone would bother with this name now. But that’s why I’m bullish for a change to 5.70 in the next two months.

The big thing for me is capacity cuts and cost controls. They’ve gotten pretty aggressive about slashing expenses and realigning manufacturing. People are overly focused on sub numbers, but if they keep limiting cash burn, the whole narrative around “PTON dying” will flip. Management hasn’t been super inspiring, but the last quarterly call actually had a less doom y tone than before.

I get why people are skittish. There’s major risk that subscription churn keeps rising and hardware demand never truly recovers. Plus, they’ve been pretty quiet about new products. If they whiff on one more quarter, I could absolutely see this dipping below 4. But I think a small beat and upbeat guidance later this quarter is very possible, especially if their cost discipline holds. That would spark a short term squeeze since this thing is heavily shorted right now.

I’m not calling for a huge recovery, just a relief bounce to 5.70. Not a forever hold, but looks good for a trade if you can stomach the volatility. If PTON can actually show free cash flow progress, even slightly, you’ll see buyers step in fast.