PSA's been all over the place this past year. Just looking at the price history, it's had some pretty sharp moves from the low 260s to well above 300, and plenty of back and forth in between. Right now at 292.47, it's not at the lows but also not pushing new highs, so I don't see this as stretched or screaming value either way.
I'm leaning bearish for the next few months. Rates look stubborn, which keeps pressure on REITs like PSA, and the volatility in the chart doesn't give me tons of confidence that the market's settled on a stable range for these guys. Plus, self storage demand isn't exactly going gangbusters consumer softness and higher move out rates are showing up in earnings across the space. Not a disaster, just a drag on growth for now.
If they guide down on occupancy or cut FFO outlook in the next earnings call, I think we could revisit the 265.00 level. That's my target. I see at least a few weeks of chop or grind down unless something changes on the macro side or they surprise with an aggressive buyback or asset sale.
The wild card is if the Fed signals a real pivot or interest rates fall meaningfully. That could flip the script quick. But for now, PSA's last few months show that the floor can drop out fast if sentiment sours. I wouldn't get cute trying to time the absolute bottom, but I don't like the risk/reward up here.