PINS has been trashed. Just look at this chart: basically a six month ski slope, topping out near 38 and sliding all the way down to 18. It’s ugly don’t care how you slice it. But that’s the setup I want. When retail taps out and momentum shorts pile in, you get these gross looking bases that set up the best snapback rallies.
At 18.20, I’m calling bottom. Q1 earnings will be the real test, but I’m not waiting for a perfect setup. The stock is already down over 50 percent from its summer highs, and the business hasn’t fundamentally broken. Ad spending is cyclic and management already cut the growth guide, but no way does this stay below 22.00 if they even hint at stabilization. My target: 22.00. That’s a quick 3.80 move from here.
Everyone’s panicking about the ad market, sure, but PINS still pulls solid engagement and isn’t facing existential threats like some other social platforms. User growth has actually been holding up, and the Street’s been hammering them for margins that have room to bounce back once the easy comps hit. Plus I’d bet on some activist chatter or M&A rumor if this keeps trading like a penny stock.
I’m not blind to the risk. If they miss next quarter again or guide down (again), it could be another leg lower, fast. But at these levels, sentiment is nuclear winter bad and short term pain is already on the tape. The next catalyst is that Q1 report any sign of stabilization and this rips.
