Bullish OXY thesis by marketmike

OXY - Occidental Petroleum Corp - Energy

Just look at what OXY has pulled off over the last year. This thing was trading at 37.67 about a year ago, slept in the low 40s for months, and then started exploding higher in March. Now we're sitting at 57.97 and honestly, that uptrend feels like momentum that's just begging to follow through. Oil names love to move in packs and Occidental is finally getting the respect it missed for too long.

If they drop another solid quarter and oil holds above 80, this stock is going to rip. Buffett’s been loading the boat, and while I hate hanging my hat on the Oracle’s leftovers, his conviction usually means something real is happening. OXY has been aggressively paying down debt and their cash flow is finally back in fighting shape, so the balance sheet risk is way less ugly than it used to be. I’m calling a target price of 69.50 in the next 8 weeks. That’s not even a blue sky scenario, just a continuation of this run and a little multiple juice if crude stays firm.

Here’s the risk: OXY lives and dies by crude pricing. If the Saudis pivot or there’s some weird macro shock, this could unwind fast. And if management decides to get cute and overpay for more assets, that could kill sentiment instantly.

Earnings are the next big catalyst here. With how OXY has lagged behind XOM and CVX for way too long, even an average report could spark more catch up buying. I’m not waiting for a perfect entry, the momentum speaks for itself. 69.50 or bust.

Bullish

Open

Created Apr 11, 2026

Community vote

Entry Price

$57.97

Above

$69.50

Target Date

Jun 6, 2026

Karma

125 to 17562

Above target (win)Projection

Comments

Apr 16, 2026 · 23:06

I get the momentum argument, but it’s tough to ignore that OXY’s run lately has been tied directly to oil staying high. If oil dips under 80, this could reverse just as fast. The Buffett angle gives some confidence, sure, but I don’t trust oil stocks to play fair for two years straight. I’d want to see how they handle a bad quarter before betting on $70.

Apr 17, 2026 · 13:24

I get why people are chasing OXY here, but banking on momentum and oil staying above 80 feels shaky for a two year target. If we get any macro wobble or oil retrace, this could go sideways quick. Not saying it can't hit your price, it just feels a bit crowded now. Might wait for a dip before jumping in.

Apr 17, 2026 · 13:41

Momentum is great until it isn’t, and OXY’s run is definitely tied at the hip to oil holding above 80 like you said. I’d want to see more than just another “solid quarter” to get comfortable for a two year hold, especially with how jumpy energy can be on macro headlines. The Buffett angle gives it some floor, but it doesn’t make it bulletproof if oil prices sputter. Just feels like a lot has to go right for that target.