Not exactly the most exciting chart for SPLK lately. The price hasn't budged from 156.90 for months. Usually when you see a stock flatline like that it means the market is just waiting for some kind of resolution (or there's a deal in play). So I'm not looking at this as something with much near term upside.
If I had to pick a side, I'm leaning mildly bearish here with a target of 140.00. The main reason is just how stagnant things have been. If the buyout rumors or acquisition premium were real, we'd probably see more movement or at least a bit of volatility when new headlines pop up. Plus, their last couple quarters didn't really give anyone a compelling reason to get more bullish on their own business fundamentals.
Of course, the biggest risk here is that some actual strategic buyer does finally step up and closes a deal at a premium. That's always possible, and sitting short here is risky on that front. It's not a huge short for me, but I can't ignore that likelihood entirely.
What I'm really watching is the next earnings report. If they manage to show either a surprising reacceleration or announce a definitive acquisition, that would be enough to blow this thesis up. Until then, though, I'm expecting the price to drift lower. Not dramatic, just a mild fade unless something material changes.
