PEP has actually been pretty interesting if you look at the price action over the last year. After grinding lower through most of last summer, the stock bounced back nicely from under 130 up to 167 earlier this year. Now it’s cooled back off to around 157.06. If you zoom out, it looks like the market still respects PEP as a defensive name but won’t give it a free pass anymore.

I’m bullish here for a move back to 180.00 over the next few months. Why? First, earnings stability. Even when consumer spend gets shaky, PepsiCo’s mix of beverages and snacks holds up. They just raised prices recently and didn’t see a big volume drop. The margins are still healthy, which really shows pricing power. Plus, the dividend is no joke for this kind of stock good for folks who want something less wild than tech.

One risk is pretty obvious: if we actually get a full blown consumer recession, junk food and sodas could take a hit (it’s not bulletproof). The other thing is rates. If we get more hawkish surprises from the Fed, you know the drill everything with a yield gets hammered, even the blue chips.

The upcoming catalyst I’m watching is their next earnings print. Last time, any beat or raise led to a quick pop. If they can guide strong again, I think the market re rates the stock higher. So yeah, not a home run setup but I see a path for a solid 15% move from here. I’m in, with a target of 180.00.