Bearish RTX thesis by josh_onstocks

RTX - RTX Corp - Industrials

RTX is having a weird year, not gonna lie. Zoom out and it’s basically a rollercoaster: up from 126 to 205 in less than a year, then it absolutely faceplants back down to 155 in April. Now it’s clawed its way back to 176.07, and everyone’s arguing if that’s a dead cat bounce or rocket fuel. I’m bearish here and putting my target at 154.00 (yeah, right back where it tanked a month ago).

Here’s why: the run from fall to February was fueled by a mix of defense spending hype and straight up FOMO. But RTX’s latest numbers didn’t exactly light the world on fire, and the market looks like it finally realized you can’t just print tendies every quarter. Also, the geopolitics wild card is cool for memes but it doesn’t pay the bills if contracts slow down.

To be fair, there’s always a chance RTX rides some new contract news or guidance hike. If that happens soon, I’ll look like just another angry bear in the comments. But the risk is that any whiff of a spending cut or margin squeeze and, well, the floor drops out again. That up down up pattern in the chart is basically telling you it’s a hot potato. Respect the chop.

Next earnings is the main thing I’m watching people are desperate for a beat and raise to justify the recent bounce. If they don’t deliver, I think this wobbles down to my 154.00 target in the next 8 weeks. Bring popcorn.

Bearish

Open

Created Apr 30, 2026

Community vote

Entry Price

$176.07

Below

$154.00

Target Date

Jun 25, 2026

Karma

125 to 17562

Below target (win)Projection

Comments

May 1, 2026 · 14:11

All this “defense hype” is just hot air, man. People see a few headlines and forget RTX got wrecked for a reason. The FOMO buyers are gonna get rinsed again when earnings misses or the war headlines cool off. I’ve got this as a slow bleed back under 160 too. No way I’m touching long here.

May 2, 2026 · 14:12

Not gonna argue with the rollercoaster part, but I’m not sure it’s as simple as “just FOMO” driving the upside. Defense spending hype is annoying, sure, but sometimes it’s not hype when budgets are actually ballooning. Still, your target isn’t wild if this thing loses steam and people bail again. I’d be cautious shorting though, these headlines flip fast and all it takes is one new contract to mess up a nice bear thesis.

May 8, 2026 · 22:34

You’re not wrong, budgets really are up, but it’s wild how fast sentiment flipped last time. I get the FOMO argument because retail piled in on those headlines, but I don’t think you can just ignore the risk that reality doesn’t match the hype, especially with how fast RTX dropped before. I’d be careful betting on endless defense gravy trains fixing everything that’s shaky under the hood here.

May 4, 2026 · 00:56

I get the skepticism, especially with how fast it bounced back after that massive drop. I’m wary of just blaming FOMO for the whole move up, but at this price it feels like people are ignoring what caused the fall in the first place. If we get another earnings stumble or a dip in contract news, 154 isn’t that wild. Not touching it long here, that’s for sure.

May 4, 2026 · 23:29

Honestly I don’t hate this take. The bounce to 176 feels like a lot of people hoping for a quick recovery without looking at why RTX nuked to 155 in the first place. Defense hype can vanish fast if the numbers disappoint again. I’d rather be late than early jumping in here. Still feels like way more downside risk.

May 8, 2026 · 14:57

That jump from 126 to 205 really did feel overcooked, and I’m not convinced the issues that dumped it to 155 magically vanished. Even if defense spending is strong, it’s not like RTX is immune from execution hiccups or sudden sentiment shifts. I wouldn’t short it blindly, but at 176 the risk reward just looks pretty meh to me.

May 10, 2026 · 00:48

I’m with you on not blindly shorting it, but honestly that spike to 205 felt like pure hype and folks chasing headlines. The fact it cratered so fast back to 155 tells me something’s shaky under the hood. Sure, defense budgets are up, but RTX has fumbled execution before. I wouldn’t be shocked if it drifts back toward your target once the FOMO crowd loses interest.