RTX is having a weird year, not gonna lie. Zoom out and it’s basically a rollercoaster: up from 126 to 205 in less than a year, then it absolutely faceplants back down to 155 in April. Now it’s clawed its way back to 176.07, and everyone’s arguing if that’s a dead cat bounce or rocket fuel. I’m bearish here and putting my target at 154.00 (yeah, right back where it tanked a month ago).
Here’s why: the run from fall to February was fueled by a mix of defense spending hype and straight up FOMO. But RTX’s latest numbers didn’t exactly light the world on fire, and the market looks like it finally realized you can’t just print tendies every quarter. Also, the geopolitics wild card is cool for memes but it doesn’t pay the bills if contracts slow down.
To be fair, there’s always a chance RTX rides some new contract news or guidance hike. If that happens soon, I’ll look like just another angry bear in the comments. But the risk is that any whiff of a spending cut or margin squeeze and, well, the floor drops out again. That up down up pattern in the chart is basically telling you it’s a hot potato. Respect the chop.
Next earnings is the main thing I’m watching people are desperate for a beat and raise to justify the recent bounce. If they don’t deliver, I think this wobbles down to my 154.00 target in the next 8 weeks. Bring popcorn.