If you've been watching TTD over the past year, it's honestly looked like a slow motion train wreck. This thing peaked last summer near 85 and has been bleeding out ever since. The drop from August’s high to today’s 21 ish level is pretty brutal, and even the occasional bounce like that small pop into the new year didn’t have much staying power. I can't ignore that kind of waterfall; momentum is still against it for now.

Still, I'm not outright bearish at this price. The core business does have real staying power, especially with digital ad budgets stabilizing (even if they're not growing as fast as the glory days). TTD has avoided the worst outcomes, shoring up some customer churn and managing costs. If the market gives it a little breathing room, I think a recovery towards 25.00 over the next few months is pretty reasonable nothing flashy, but not dead money either.

The caveat is that if digital ad demand rolls over again, or if a larger player decides to take a more aggressive stance, TTD could revisit new lows. There’s also the psychological side; after a 75 percent plus drawdown in less than a year, you do get a lot of bagholders looking to exit on every bounce.

The main thing I’m watching is quarterly results, obviously. If they can deliver a clean beat and guide even modestly higher, that could finally reset sentiment. I'm not jumping in big here, but I’ll nibble and see if we get that catalyst. Targeting 25.00 for now close to a 20 percent upside in a few weeks if nerves settle.